Edge is win rate minus break-even
If your win rate is 55 % and the break-even line at this R is 50 %, you have a 5 % edge — meaningful but not huge. If the break-even line is 60 %, you do not have an edge yet, even if recent results feel good.
Free trader tools
Break-Even Calculator
Drop in your win rate, your average win, and your average loss. We give you back the win rate you need to be at break-even given your average R, the edge you currently have over that line, and how many average trades it takes to recover from one average loss.
If you don't know your break-even win rate, you don't know whether you have an edge or a hobby. The math takes seconds; most traders never run it.
MindTrajour_BreakEven
How to read these numbers honestly
Three reads to take seriously before you decide your strategy is working.
Trades-to-recover is the variance reality
A 5 % edge with a 50 % win rate at 1R sounds great until you realise it takes ~10 average trades to recover one average loss. That is the variance you have to emotionally tolerate without breaking discipline.
Recovery is not the same as edge
Climbing back to break-even after a loss is what every strategy does in expectation if it has positive edge. Whether you let it actually happen — without revenge-trading or oversizing the recovery — is the discipline part.
Edge is a number, not a vibe
A real edge is a number you can defend with your trade history.
MindTrajour breaks your win rate and average R down by strategy, IV regime, and time of day — so you know which subset of your trading actually has edge instead of relying on the average that feels fine.
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Keep stacking your edge
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risk
Risk/Reward Calculator
Pick a direction, drop in your entry, stop, and target. We hand back the dollar risk, the dollar reward, the R-multiple, and — the number every trader should know cold — the win rate you need to break even at this risk/reward.
Open tooloptions
Multi-Leg Break-Even Calculator
Define up to four option legs — calls or puts, long or short, any strike, any premium. The calculator finds every break-even, the maximum profit, and the maximum loss across the underlying's plausible range.
Open toolrisk
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Drop in your win rate, average win, and average loss. The calculator returns the full-Kelly stake — and the half- and quarter-Kelly versions that disciplined traders actually use, because full-Kelly drawdowns are real and brutal.
Open toolFrequently asked questions
Everything you need to know before sizing your next trade.